Back in 2014 I served as a member of the Projection Tables Working Group of the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association. The AG 2014 mortality projection model for the Dutch population is a stochastic mortality forecasting model of type Li-Lee. Using maximum likelihood estimation with Poisson assumption for the number of deaths, this multi-population model is calibrated on a set of European countries with similar socio-economic status. Since the publication in 2014, the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association biyearly publishes an update of the projection model, subject to methodological changes (if deemed necessary).
As principal investigator, I lead a similar project for the Institute of Actuaries in Belgium (IA|BE) with projection models published in 2015 (see IABE 2015) and 2020 (see IABE 2020). This IA|BE mortality projection model delivers a best estimate for future mortality at the level of the Belgian population, but can also be used as a scenario generator for future mortality. The IA|BE 2020 was presented in November 2020, including a first attempt to assess the (possible) impact of COVID-19 on the mortality forecasts, see IABE 2020 Covid impact analysis. Presentation slides are available here and here.
This is joint work with Sander Devriendt and Jens Robben.